Why operators care
X-rays can cause immediate sunlit-side HF absorption, while later energetic particles or a CME may produce different polar or geomagnetic effects.
What to compare on air
Separate the immediate X-ray event from later particle and geomagnetic forecasts; note which side of Earth is sunlit.
The common mistake
Treating every flare as an Earth-directed CME.
Space-weather indices and propagation models describe probabilities and regional conditions. A usable contact still depends on the exact path, time, frequency, antenna pattern, noise, power, and current observations.