Why operators care
Different daylight, ionization, absorption, noise, and headings can make the longer route stronger at particular times.
What to compare on air
Rotate a directional antenna through both calculated bearings and compare timing, delay, and signal behavior.
The common mistake
Calling a signal long path solely because it sounds delayed or fluttery.
Space-weather indices and propagation models describe probabilities and regional conditions. A usable contact still depends on the exact path, time, frequency, antenna pattern, noise, power, and current observations.