Why operators care
Operating exactly at predicted MUF is fragile because the ionosphere and model are uncertain; operating too far below can increase absorption and noise.
What to compare on air
Use a current path prediction, start near the recommended FOT, then compare adjacent authorized bands.
The common mistake
Treating FOT as the one frequency guaranteed to work all day.
Space-weather indices and propagation models describe probabilities and regional conditions. A usable contact still depends on the exact path, time, frequency, antenna pattern, noise, power, and current observations.