What is really happening
Whether it opens depends on ionization, absorption, hop geometry, takeoff angle, path daylight, and frequency—not merely distance. Scatter can also shift the apparent arrival angle.
Do not confuse it with this
Locking a beam on the computed heading without comparing nearby headings or long path can miss the actual strongest arrival.
Use it deliberately
Compute both bearings, start short path, peak the received signal rather than the map, compare noise and adjacent bands, and log deviations that repeat.
Operating shorthand and propagation models are tools for making a better decision, not proof of a path, contact, or safety condition. Confirm with current rules, measured signals, weather, and the complete station.