Why operators care
Openings can be extremely strong and geographically selective, then change or disappear within minutes. Season, time, and path geometry influence probability but do not guarantee it.
What to compare on air
Watch real signals, beacons, and reports while checking several headings and frequencies; record time and path rather than assuming a normal band opening.
The common mistake
Treating one intense Es contact as stable everyday coverage.
Space-weather indices and propagation models describe probabilities and regional conditions. A usable contact still depends on the exact path, time, frequency, antenna pattern, noise, power, and current observations.