Why the station behaves this way
MUF is path-specific: takeoff angle, distance, time, season, solar conditions, and ionosphere all matter. It is not a global ceiling and it changes continuously.
A common wrong turn
Operating exactly at a forecast MUF is fragile because small changes can close the path; confusing MUF with the critical frequency also produces poor band choices.
What to do at the radio
Use a prediction for the actual endpoints and time, choose a working frequency with margin below the predicted MUF, and confirm with current observations.
Use current equipment instructions, legal operating limits, the exact signal path, and observed conditions. A connector, software label, transformer ratio, or forecast value does not prove complete-system performance.